Bitcoin is currently deflationary

Bitcoin's supply is currently deflationary.

Refutation: By protocol rule, new bitcoin is issued with every block and will be until the subsidy reaches zero around 2140; supply issuance is therefore positive — Bitcoin is inflationary in supply terms today (under 1% annually since the 2024 halving) and disinflationary in trajectory, with the rate halving roughly every four years. It is never supply-deflationary by schedule; total supply monotonically increases toward, and never exceeds, 21 million.

Nuance: Two rescues of the claim exist and should be named rather than blurred. (1) Effective supply: if permanently lost coins exceed new issuance in a given period, circulating supply shrinks — plausible in some periods but unmeasurable, since loss can only be estimated. (2) Purchasing power: an appreciating currency is "deflationary" in the colloquial economic sense regardless of issuance. Both are defensible with definitions stated; neither makes the protocol's issuance schedule deflationary. Also frequently garbled on stage: the halvings do not stop at some near-term date — issuance continues, halving stepwise, until ~2140.

Common misstatements: "Bitcoin has zero inflation" (issuance is positive until ~2140). "Bitcoin becomes deflationary at the next halving" (it becomes less inflationary; the correct word is disinflationary). "21 million coins already exist" (the cap is an asymptote; roughly 95% had been issued by the mid-2020s). "Deflationary because the price went up" (conflates purchasing power with supply).